The implementation of U.S. tariffs reignited trade war concerns, with copper prices expected to decline in response. [SMM Morning Comment on Copper]

Published: Apr 3, 2025 08:53

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【US Tariffs Implemented, Trade War Concerns Resurface, Copper Prices Expected to Decline】Macro side, around 4 AM Beijing time on Thursday, US President Trump delivered a speech in the White House Rose Garden. He stated that he would impose a minimum 10% tariff on all exporters to the US and additional tariffs on approximately 60 countries/regions with the largest trade imbalances with the US. According to senior White House officials, the base tariff rate (10%) will take effect at 4 AM on April 5, and reciprocal tariffs will take effect at 4 AM on April 9. White House documents indicate that some goods will be exempt from reciprocal tariffs, including: steel/aluminum products and automobiles/auto parts already subject to Section 232 tariffs; copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and wood products; all items that may be subject to Section 232 tariffs in the future; gold; energy and certain other minerals that the US cannot obtain. Trump stated that he would consider lowering the tariff rates if other countries remove trade barriers on US exports.

SMM April 3 News: LME copper opened at 9,702.0 overnight, reaching a high of 9,721.0 and a low of 9,670.0 during the session, showing a fluctuating trend overall. It finally closed at 9,721.0, up 0.29%, with a trading volume of 16,695 and an open interest of 302,920. SHFE copper 2505 contract opened at 79,840 yuan/mt overnight, reaching a high of 79,950 yuan/mt and a low of 79,710 yuan/mt during the session, showing a downward fluctuating trend overall. It finally closed at 79,780 yuan/mt, down 0.13%, with a trading volume of 28,289 and an open interest of 194,696. On the macro front, around 4:00 AM Beijing time on Thursday, US President Trump delivered a speech in the White House Rose Garden. He stated that he would impose a minimum 10% tariff on all exporters to the US and additional tariffs on about 60 countries/regions with the largest trade imbalances with the US. According to senior White House officials, the base tariff rate (10%) will take effect at around 4:00 AM on April 5, and reciprocal tariffs will take effect at around 4:00 AM on April 9. White House documents indicate that some goods will be exempt from reciprocal tariffs, including: steel/aluminum products and automobiles/auto parts already subject to Section 232 tariffs; copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and wood products; all items that may be subject to Section 232 tariffs in the future; gold; energy and certain other minerals that the US cannot obtain. Trump stated that if other countries remove trade barriers to US exports, he would consider lowering the tariff rates. The night session maintained a fluctuating trend while awaiting the announcement of reciprocal tariffs, and market concerns about a trade war resurfaced after the tariffs were announced. On the fundamental side, with the Qingming Festival approaching, downstream sentiment remains cautious due to persistently high absolute prices, and pre-holiday stocking demand has not yet materialized. Overall, with the announcement of US reciprocal tariffs and heightened market concerns, copper prices are expected to decline today.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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